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Fantasy Football

Fantasy Football: A little 'cheating' could help on draft day

Friday, August 17, 2007

Fantasy football tools have advanced from the Flintstones to the Jetsons.

For old-timers, research meant scouring The Sporting News or reading out-of-town newspapers at the library.

Extras

We had live scoring, though. Just get the Monday newspaper box scores, grab a pencil and paper and score away ... live.

The Internet has changed everything about fantasy football except good, old-fashioned strategy.

Last week, we talked about knowing your league's rules (scoring, transactions, etc.) inside and out. The next step is to plug that knowledge into your predraft rankings, or cheatsheet.

My Web search of "fantasy football" pulled up 51 million results, so it's entirely possible that I may not know about every good site.

But one I do like is www.fftoolbox.com. First of all, nearly everything on the site is free — my favorite price.

They have customized draft sheets. Input your league's scoring system into the site and it spits back a cheatsheet with estimated points. Is every possible scoring system tweak available? No. But you can get a pretty good idea.

With any cheatsheet system, the inherent biases of the rankings shows. But, if your league gives more points for passing yards than an average system, it would bump up the quarterbacks in the top 100 list.

The site has updated player outlooks, sleepers, busts, contract-year players, rookie estimates, stats and all the Spacely Sprockets and Cogswell's Cogs you need to compete.

Be prepared

If you've done some mock drafts, you know what players are being drafted when. You also can go back and see picks you would have made differently. So do it ... before your real draft.

When you plug in a player's value, you look at past performance, surrounding talent, coaching style, free agency, strategy, schedule, etc.

The beauty of fantasy football is that you can spent as little or as much time twisting these numbers how you want. Either way, you can compete and win.

For those of you who lean toward doing more, put together your own cheatsheet. If you believe, for instance, that Minnesota's Adrian Peterson is going to blow up, then move him up your list and push Chester Taylor down.

So what if you're mocked by your buddies by "reaching" for someone on draft day. If you're right, you have all season to give it back. If not, blame it on your magazine or some dopey fantasy football columnist.

I've done several 10-, 12- and 14-team drafts online. Certain choices keep popping up at different times during the draft. At RB, Vernand Morency, Julius Jones or Cadillac Williams? At QB, Jay Cutler, Jake Delhomme or Rex Grossman? At WR, Hines Ward, Deion Branch or Darrrell Jackson?

If you don't care, use your list. But you DO care, and that's why you're reading. Besides moving guys up (in all rounds) that you want no matter what, the other main item of business is to rank all these similar players so that you're ready when it's your turn.

Don't be that owner who makes everyone start whistling the Jeopardy tune. OK, you can do that once if you're looking up a bye week replacement for a key starter. But once only.

For the record, I like Jones, Delhomme and Ward.

Making your cheatsheet

Like many FF'ers, I rank my players by position and grouped in tiers. Unlike some people, my tiers also pay attention to how many owners there are in a league.

For example, I believe there are a definite top six quarterbacks. If you don't get one, there's a big group of other guys you can get late. However, in a 14-team league, you don't want to wait too long because there may only be 12 consistent starting QBs.

Therefore, my tiers (perhaps tears later) always include notations about how many represent the top 14 QBs, 28 RBs (two starters per team), 42 WR/TEs (three starters per team).

This helps when you're deciding if you should grab a second receiver who is first-level quality instead of a third running back. How deep is your league's bench in all positions?

Shifts happen

You can make a cheatsheet now, but don't get married to it. Don't even buy a ring. A few starting positions are up for grabs and won't be settled until the third preseason game.

There are always some preseason injuries that juggle the two-deep roster. Just as important as who the first-string guys are is who is the clear-cut backup. That will help in deep leagues where you try to steal a standout's understudy (the handcuff issue will come up later).

Again, you need to pay attention to newspapers, radio, TV and the Internet to find out these things. But do something else. Watch a couple of the third (read: most important) preseason games. The stats don't mean anything, but the rotation of players at key spots does.

If you don't trust yourself and want to use your magazine, see if it includes an online update. But remember, those magazines aren't drafting your team. You are.

Reader mailbag

Carla P. asked if the weekends of Aug. 18, 25 or later are best for drafting.

The answer is as clear as Kenny Irons. Sure, the Bengals rookie was only going to be a backup. But say he was a veteran No. 1 runner who is always good for 1,300 yards and 12 TDs, like, say, Rudi Johnson.

You don't want to be the person who drafted that guy Aug. 18 only to see his season end with an ACL injury during an otherwise meaningless preseason game. Wait until the "exhibition" season is over.

Draft dates are like curfews — the later the better.

Next week: Draft strategies and surprising stats

Unpaid endorsements

www.fftoolbox.com: Two years ago, I didn't buy a fantasy football magazine. I made out my cheatsheet using the site and won the title. (Results not typical of all users). Thank you, Steve Smith.

www.fftoday.com: I haven't spent much time on this site, but for $16.95 you can purchase a Cheatsheet Compiler and Draft Buddy that looks slick. Of course, at 17 bucks, you'd better make the playoffs.

Fantasy Football Index: If I do buy a magazine, it's this one. I like the format of the game-by-game stats for key players on each team.

 

 

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