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Fantasy Football: Practice makes perfect (maybe) on draft day

By Mark Gokavi

Staff Writer

Friday, August 24, 2007

Lessons from eight online mock drafts and about the same amount of real drafts:

1. Yes, that's a lot of time to spend on imaginary players on imaginary teams.

Extras

2. Most of it was on personal time, not company time.

3. It's part of my grueling job (so that's how I'll justify it).

OK, those weren't the real lessons. Let's try again.

First, the setup: Most drafts were done at espn.com and one at yahoo.com. They are usually a good exercise to show where people are being drafted, but beware people who log in and then leave, letting the full 1:30 tick off before the site's automated list directs the selection.

The real ESPN drafts were 10 teams and the mock drafts were 10 or 12. The Yahoo league is 14 owners, which is the size of my league.

Mock this

That said, let's start with lessons from the mock drafts.

1. Not everyone is using this as a tool to help them draft. That explains why one joker picked Ted Ginn Jr., Anthony Gonzalez and Antonio Pittman in the first three rounds — a Buckeye fan, maybe?

2. In all eight drafts, the first receiver taken was Carolina's Steve Smith. He averaged going No. 15, with a high of 11 and a low of 21. Comment; People are remembering 2005 more than 2006.

3. Similarly, Peyton Manning was always the first quarterback taken — on average at No. 8 with a high of 3 and a low of 14. Comment: I can see Manning if you're in a league that really gives you big-time points for passing yards and TDs.

4. The draft spots were random, but somehow I ended up with the top pick (LaDainian Tomlinson) once, the second pick (Steven Jackson) four times, the third spot (Larry Johnson) once, the fifth spot (Joseph Addai) and No. 11 (Rudi Johnson). Comment: How come I never get such a high spot in my league?

5. Every year, a couple rookie running backs make big contributions. This year's darling is Buffalo's Marshawn Lynch. Here's where Lynch went in these drafts: 37, 35, 44, 38, 46, 31, 43, 43. Comment: I took Lynch twice — once after I got RB Rudi Johnson and WR Steve Smith and once after I selected Addai, QB Carson Palmer and RB Brandon Jacobs.

Draft this

1. In one league, I actually went against form and drafted Manning first. I also took part-time running backs who score full-time TDs (Maurice Jones-Drew and Marion Barber III) plus RB Cadillac Williams and receivers Marques Colston and Andre Johnson. Comment: Looks good on paper, but what if Fred Taylor and Julius Jones bounce back?

2. I picked first in one of these leagues and got Tomlinson. I then waited for approximately 47 minutes before picking again at 20 and 21 — where I took Palmer and WR Chad Johnson. I followed that with RBs Lynch and Chester Taylor at 40-41 and WRs Terry Glenn and Laveranues Coles at 60-61. Later, I took "upside guys" like TE Vernon Davis and RB Jerious Norwood. Comment: If this team doesn't make the playoffs, something's wrong.

3. Many pundits expect Detroit's offense to light it up. But in one draft, the Lions meowed softly, going at 31 (WR Roy Williams), 62 (QB Jon Kitna), 83 (RB Kevin Jones), 94 (WR Calvin Johnson), 109 (RB Tatum Bell) and 116 (WR Mike Furrey). Comment: Wonder if Matt Millen plays fantasy football and/or if he's any good at it?

4. In 10-team leagues, you really can wait on WRs. In one, I got RB Willie Parker (9), RB Laurence Maroney (12) and RB Thomas Jones (29) — you can play three RBs on espn.com — and took a chance on QB Donovan McNabb at 32. Comment: My WRs? I still got Lee Evans at 49 and Plaxico Burress at 52 and took chances on Matt Jones (89) and Calvin Johnson (109).

5. Try to do at least one mock or online draft that has the same number of teams as your actual draft. In my 14-teamer, I learned that QBs are way more important than in most leagues (it was a custom Yahoo league). So, I actually took Manning and was still able to get RBs Lynch and Thomas Jones (and later Julius Jones) plus receivers Coles, Donald Driver and (weak link) Matt Jones. Comment: Just keeping up with the Joneses.

 

 

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