Fantasy Football: Someone has to take Alexander, T.O.
Thursday, August 30, 2007
For those on the go, here's the first annual 32-team, 32-paragraph, fantasy football primer and fearless forecasts.
Heavy on abbreviations and analysis, short on first names and sentence structure, light on fluff. Broken down by division for your convenience:
Extras
AFC East
• Patriots: RB Maroney is a first-rounder who may go later. QB Brady should have his best year. All the WRs scare me because they'll split the catches, yards and scores. D/ST will be top 5.
• Jets: RB Jones will be solid, probably not great. WR Coles (and Cotchery) are underrated. QB Pennington could evolve into a fantasy starter.
• Bills: You want WR Evans. You might reach for him early. In fact, the team could be full of reaches like QB Losman and rookie RB Lynch. Wilder still, they may all pay off.
• Dolphins: QB Green's career is nearly over. RB Brown could go from doghouse to penthouse. WR Chambers is all over the map, but usually good for two monster games.
AFC North
• Ravens: RB McGahee should be great here, but that knee history is troublesome. QB McNair has had a great career. This is his last best shot for a title, not fantasy worth. WR Clayton isn't sexy, but solid.
• Bengals: You really can't go wrong taking a striped offensive player. QB Palmer, RB R. Johnson, WR C. Johnson, WR Houshmandzadeh, K Graham (and even RB Watson) will be on teams. About that defense . . .
• Steelers: RB Parker will go off and be a top-5 drafted player in 2008 (unless he loses goal-line carries to RB Davenport). QB Roethlisberger is just OK, fantasy-wise. I like both WRs Ward and Holmes (shhh, don't tell anyone).
• Browns: Um, uh, well . . . a fellow reporter tells me RB Lewis will be very good. TE Winslow should be a high pick. Not sold on any WR.
AFC South
• Colts: Take all the Colts you can find except perhaps TE Clark. My old boss took Clark in the third round of his rookie season. I just now got up off the floor. My sides still hurt.
• Titans: Torn on QB Young. He's all they have, which is good. But he's all they have, which is bad. RB White and WR Jones supposed sleepers, but not on my team.
• Jaguars: Give me RBs Jones-Drew and Taylor and keep the rest. WR M. Jones shows promise and then breaks that promise. K Scobee good for leagues that award extra points for long field goals.
• Texans: RB Green worth taking during the time many owners will draft part-timers, but he's a second-string guy at best. OK, QB Schaub, let's see it. WR Johnson is undervalued.
AFC West
• Chargers: WR Jackson is the most awake sleeper this preseason. He's got tools, but with reigning fantasy deity RB Tomlinson, QB Rivers and TE Gates, where's the big opportunity?
• Chiefs: QB Huard could be just good enough not to hurt RB Johnson's value, which is sky-high despite the holdout. Never take WR Kennison. Ever. Period. TE Gonzalez's last big year.
• Broncos: RB Henry has nine children from nine different women. Think about that. Ugh. Says here he gets 125 yards and a TD for each one. This guy gets it done in the red zone. QB Cutler is high risk/high reward. Love WR Walker. He'll score more than most WRs taken before him.
• Raiders: The QB winner may be worth being a third-stringer. RB Jordan was taken about 80 spots too high last year. This year he'll go about 30 too late. One WR will be good, probably Porter.
NFC East
• Eagles: When QB McNabb is healthy, he's a top-3 guy. RB Westbrook kills in leagues that reward receptions, but fear Tony Hunt in the Jerome Bettis role. WR Brown will be good, but no 1,200-yard, 90-catch guy.
• Cowboys: Hate WR Owens. No, his ability, just him. Guess I'd take him if I had to. QB Romo is solid, but RBs Jones and Barber get the red-zone shots that TO doesn't drop (bias alert).
• Giants: QB E. Manning = many yards, many TDs, many INTs, a couple huge games and a couple stinkers. RB Jacobs should be awesome, but Droughns lurks. TE Shockey is like TO. Separate business from bias. WR Burress will go later than he should. Take him.
• Redskins: Hall-of-Fame coach Joe Gibbs has a weak defense, a gimpy starting RB (Portis), a young-but-heralded QB (Campbell) and decent WR in Moss. Still, that's mediocre. Why did he come back again? RB Betts will outrush Portis (again).
NFC North
• Bears: Not sold on RB Benson, but you can't pass up the No. 1 runner in a running offense. QB Grossman is hot and cold. Good bye-week guy. WR Berrian good for leagues that give extra points for long TDs. K Gould comes back to earth.
• Packers: QB Favre is fun to watch, unless you have to hear John Madden talk about Favre. Still good for three great games, three horrendous ones. RB Jackson has job, for now. WR Driver is a no-brainer No. 1 when healthy.
• Vikings: Now paging QBs Jackson, Holcomb and Bollinger. Please report to the backfield to hand off to RBs Peterson and Taylor. Repeatedly. It's likely many drafts will be held without anyone saying, "I'll take Vikings receiver . . . ."
• Lions: Next year's paper champions, or paper mediocre team. QB Kitna is like E. Manning, a lot of high numbers in every category. There's no excuses. RB Jones out early so RB Bell is attractive. WR Williams will be top-3 among receivers. WR Furrey will hold off WR Johnson early.
NFC South
• Saints: RB Bush is great, but I'm still not sure he's a top-10 pick. RB McAllister's production is tied to Bush, so formulate your opinion and dive in. QB Brees and WR Colston among my favorites at those positions.
• Panthers: QB Delhomme is slipping, so WR Smith may not be the top guy at that position. RBs Foster and Williams will get beat on if the QB play is bad. If you can, stay away from everyone but Smith unless the backs are there for depth.
• Falcons: QB Harrington to WR Horn. That's probably not what the PR staff had in mind. Harrington has RBs in Norwood and Dunn (who will steal touches from Norwood, since the new guy is the starter in most people's minds). TE Crumpler an OK option.
• Bucs: RB Williams has to be better than in 2006, right? No? WR Galloway puts up better numbers than you think because you don't watch the Bucs — amazingly the NFC's last Super Bowl champion.
NFC West
• Seahawks: RB Alexander won't be the beast of 2005 or the hurt figure of 2006. Someone will HAVE to take him in the first round, but they won't feel good about it. QB Hasselbeck is coming off an injury. WR Branch will sink or swim this year.
• Rams: Try to get at least one Ram. QB Bulger is top-5. RB Jackson is top-3. WR Holt is . . . still better than most. K Wilkins is my choice for tops at his position. The defense isn't great, so St. Louis will need points, making even WRs Bruce and Bennett, TE McMichael and handcuff RB Leonard viable options.
• 49ers: RB Frank Gore (2,000-plus total yards) should be even better with QB Smith and WRs Jackson and Battle and TE Davis around him. If his TDs increase to the teens, he'll live up to the lofty expectations.
• Cardinals: Feast or famine. The Lions of the Southwest. QB Leinart has an offensive-minded coach, an improving line (it couldn't have gotten worse), RB James, WRs Boldin, Fitzgerald and even Bryant. And yet, only Boldin and Fitz strike me as no-doubters.
Backup QB bye-week cheat sheet
Bye week: If you have this guy — consider these guys
• Week 4: Brees, Young, Campbell — Grossman (CHI at DET), Harrington (ATL vs. HOU)
• Week 5: Palmer, McNabb —Leinart (AZ at STL), McNair (BAL at SF) or Harrington (ATL at TEN)
• Week 6: P. Manning, Kitna, Cutler, Roethlisberger, Losman, A. Smith — Delhomme (CAR at AZ), Garcia (TB vs. TEN), Campbell (WAS vs. GB) or Favre.
• Week 7: Rivers, Favre, Delhomme — Schaub (HOU vs. TEN), E. Manning (NYG vs. SF), Garcia (TB at DET)
• Week 8: Hasselbeck, Romo, Leinart, McNair — Grossman (CHI vs. DET), Delhomme (CAR vs. IND), Rivers (SD vs. HOU)
• Week 9: Bulger, E. Manning, Green, Grossman — Garcia (TB vs. AZ), Harrington (ATL vs. SF), Delhomme (CAR at TEN)
• Week 10: Brady, Schaub, Pennington — Leinart (AZ vs DET), Roethlisberger (PIT vs. CLE), Rivers (SD vs. IND)

